Current:Home > InvestThe job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing? -MacroWatch
The job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing?
View
Date:2025-04-14 12:08:30
The country's job market is finally showing signs of cooling – but it may still be a tad too strong.
That may sound strange. In a traditional economy, a strong labor market would usually be a good thing, but it's not so positive in an economy that continues to struggle with high inflation.
U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in June, according to data out on Friday. That's below the pace of recent months but it's still a very solid number.
And the overall labor market remains tight, with the unemployment falling to 3.6%, low by historic standards. Meanwhile, wages also continue to rise, increasing at an annual rate of 4.4%.
Here are some key takeaways from the Labor Department's June jobs report:
The jobs engine is shifting down
It may be a slowdown, but any month when the U.S. economy adds more than 200,000 jobs is a solid gain.
In fact, the economy may need the labor market to slow down further to help bring down inflation.
There are some signs that's happening. June's employment increase was the smallest since December 2020.
Job gains for April and May were also revised down by a total of 110,000 jobs.
In the first six months of this year, monthly job growth averaged 278,000 jobs — a significant downshift from the previous six months when employers were adding an average of 354,000 jobs every month.
But all in all, this is still a strong jobs market.
Why the labor market is still so solid
The resilience of the job market has surprised many economists given that the Federal Reserve had been raising interest rates aggressively to slow down the economy and bring down inflation.
But people continue to spend, especially on activities like eating out or traveling on vacation.
In fact, people are spending about twice as much money on services as they do on goods, and lately that gap has widened.
Spending on services rose 0.4% in May while spending on goods fell by 0.5%.
Employers pay attention to those spending patterns when deciding whether to hire more workers — and it was reflected in June's jobs data.
Service industries such as health care and hospitality continued to add jobs last month, the data showed, but goods-oriented industries such as retail and warehousing have been cutting workers.
The unemployment rate remains at historic lows
There was another sign of just how tight the labor market remains: The unemployment rate dipped to 3.6% in June from 3.7% the month before.
The unemployment rate has been under 4% for 17 months in a row — the longest such stretch since the 1970s.
The jobless rate has remained low even as more workers have entered the workforce.
The share of working-age (25-54 year old) men in the job market rose to 89.2% in June — matching the highest level since February 2020. Meanwhile, the share of working-age women in the job market hit a record high of 77.8%.
Not everyone is reaping the benefits of the tight job market, however.
The unemployment rate for African Americans, which fell to a record low of 4.7% in April, has risen in each of the last two months, reaching 6% in June.
Here's more good news for workers: Wages are climbing
With solid job growth and low unemployment, employers are having to compete for workers with higher wages.
Average wages in June were 4.4% higher than a year ago. That matches the annual pay hikes in April and May.
Wages are not rising as fast as they did last year, but the good news is, neither are prices.
Annual wage gains in May outpaced price hikes, so workers' real buying power increased. (Inflation figures for June will be released next week.)
But a solid jobs market makes things harder for the Fed
Rising wages are good for workers, but the Federal Reserve is worried that if paychecks increase too rapidly, it could put upward pressure on inflation — especially in service industries where wages are one of employers' biggest expenses.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting in June, but signaled that might be just a pause and suggested that rates would likely need to continue rising to bring down inflation.
Now, with another month of solid job growth and rising wages, markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point when policymakers meet later this month.
And more rate hikes could be in store should the economy continue to show signs of resilience.
veryGood! (95128)
Related
- South Korean president's party divided over defiant martial law speech
- Cate Blanchett Revives 2014 Armani Privé Dress With Daring Twist for 2023 SAG Awards
- Khloe Kardashian Has the Perfect Response to Critical Comment About Tumor Removal Bandage
- Fans flock to theaters for the 'Barbenheimer' double feature
- Are Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp down? Meta says most issues resolved after outages
- From Barbie's origin story to the power of quitting, give these new podcasts a listen
- Mrs. Davis' First Teaser Asks You to Answer a Mysterious Call
- Vanessa Bryant Reaches Nearly $29 Million Settlement With L.A. County Over Kobe Bryant Crash Photos
- Stamford Road collision sends motorcyclist flying; driver arrested
- Cruise control: An homage to the relentless reliability of 'Mission: Impossible'
Ranking
- A South Texas lawmaker’s 15
- Will There Be a Parent Trap 2? Lisa Ann Walter Reveals Whether She’s Down
- Ed Sheeran Shares His Wife Cherry Seaborn Had a Tumor During Pregnancy
- RuPaul's Drag Race Queens Tell What 200th Episode Means for the LGBTQ Community
- Brianna LaPaglia Reveals The Meaning Behind Her "Chickenfry" Nickname
- 'Wait Wait' for July 1, 2023: With Not My Job guest Aleeza Ben Shalom
- Actor Julian Sands found dead in California after going missing on hike
- 'Wait Wait' for July 8, 2023: 25th Anniversary Spectacular, Part IV!
Recommendation
Opinion: Gianni Infantino, FIFA sell souls and 2034 World Cup for Saudi Arabia's billions
Vanessa Bryant Reaches Nearly $29 Million Settlement With L.A. County Over Kobe Bryant Crash Photos
An afternoon with Bob the Drag Queen
Fans flock to theaters for the 'Barbenheimer' double feature
Finally, good retirement news! Southwest pilots' plan is a bright spot, experts say
Tom Brady’s Daughter Vivian Intercepts His Instagram Account in the Most Adorable Way
3 YA fantasy novels for summer that bring out the monsters within
'Theater Camp' lovingly lampoons theater kids in grades 5! 6! 7! 8!