Current:Home > StocksThe U.S. dollar conquered the world. Is it at risk of losing its top spot? -MacroWatch
The U.S. dollar conquered the world. Is it at risk of losing its top spot?
View
Date:2025-04-19 09:04:17
You might just think of the dollar as the money in your wallet, the cash you use to buy your morning coffee.
But the dollar is much, much bigger than that.
The dollar is the world's currency: It dominates global business.
Economists call it the "global reserve currency," a fancy title the dollar got about 80 years ago that has brought some pretty serious perks to the U.S. economy.
But could the dollar get knocked off the top spot? There are challengers emerging, and history shows that countries whose currency dominated the globe can fall from that top spot pretty fast ... even over the course of a few days.
How it started: timing + muscle + lots of gold
The U.S. dollar did not luck its way into the top spot.
It was a carefully engineered plan that unfolded in the mountains of New Hampshire nearly 80 years ago. At the time the British Pound Sterling was the international currency. A title it had held for decades.
The dollar's rise happened pretty suddenly at the Bretton Woods International Monetary Conference in 1944. Bretton Woods was a gathering of world leaders at the end of World War II. They came together to try and establish an international system for trade and finance, to help bind the world together and increase prosperity for all.
Everyone agreed that in order to ease international trade, there needed to be a common currency, a standard everyone could use.
At the time of the conference, the British economy was in shambles. The costs of fighting a war on its own soil had been enormous. It was clear that the British Pound Sterling could not be the currency everyone counted on.
So the British pushed for a new currency that would solely be used for inter-country trades: Economist John Maynard Keynes, who was at Bretton Woods on behalf of the British, proposed the "Bancor" (a mix of the French work for bank, 'banc' and the French word for gold 'or) but also suggested "Orb" and even ... "Unicorn."
But the U.S. dollar left the Bancor, the Orb and the Unicorn in its dust. The U.S. was economically quite strong. It also had lots of gold in its vaults, which made people feel like its wealth was backed up.
It used these advantages to help muscle the dollar in as the official currency of international business at the conference.
The perks of being the world's currency
Being the world's reserve currency essentially means the U.S. dollar is at the center of most of the business on Earth.
Example: If you're a clothing designer in Chile and you order cotton from Egypt for some shirts you plan to make, you will pay for that cotton in U.S. dollars. Not Chilean pesos and not Egyptian pounds.
To be clear, the U.S. isn't involved in that deal at all, but the U.S. dollar is. When international deals happen, they usually happen in dollars.
This is a big boost to the U.S. in all kinds of way: For example, it means domestic businesses have a home court (home currency) advantage when they do business overseas.
But as the Bretton Woods conference demonstrated, that top spot can slip away pretty fast
"We have an important advantage, which may whittle away slowly if we're not careful," says economist Michael Boskin, a former White House advisor.
The challenges to the dollar
There are a couple reasons why the dollar's status is suddenly being talked about as at risk.
Earlier this year, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and even Brazil started making trades in other currencies: The Chinese Yuan and the Russian ruble. This was a very direct challenge to the U.S. dollar's central position.
China has long been pushing to have its currency replace the dollar, but it's getting momentum now for a couple of possible reasons:
First: the debt ceiling. Being the currency everyone counts on to do business means people have to believe that your currency is reliable. That recent debt ceiling drama made the U.S. (and, by extension, the dollar) look potentially risky and unstable.
Using the dollar as an economic weapon
The debt ceiling is not at the heart of the recent spate of non-dollar trades, says Benn Steil, an economist with the Council on Foreign relations.
"The real issue is the U.S. government's increasing use of the dollar as a tool for financial sanctions," he says.
The dollar is so powerful, if you can't use it, you are essentially iced out of being able to do most business anywhere in the world.
The U.S. has used this as a nonviolent way to put pressure on countries: North Korea, Iran and most recently Russia. After the invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. said, 'No dollar for you!'
Steil says the economic impacts of those sanctions have been massive and other countries have noticed.
"Sanctions are an effective tool, but we have to be careful," he says. "It's like over-prescribing an effective antibiotic. It encourages the development of new strains of bacteria that are resistant to the antibiotic."
If you are a country that has a complicated relationship with the U.S., watching the effect of American financial sanctions on Russia is scary. It's been enough to push China, Saudi Arabia and others to make deals that get around the dollar, trying to chip away at its power
"This is not nearly as efficient as using the dollar," Steil says of these deals. "That can lead to a massive fragmentation in the global economy and a much less efficient and less productive global economy."
It's still all about the Benjamins... for now
Right now, the dollar has a lot of momentum and is not at any immediate risk of losing its top spot, says economist Michael Boskin.
Still, he says momentum can change fast.
"Other countries in previous times have been the reserve currency and they fritter that away," he says. "We need to be very careful."
And right now, with so much global turmoil, China and others have started to see a possible opening to grab that top spot – or at least start to chip away at the U.S. dollar's dominance.
veryGood! (346)
Related
- Global Warming Set the Stage for Los Angeles Fires
- Spanish prosecutors accuse Rubiales of sexual assault and coercion for kissing a player at World Cup
- Maui slowly trudges toward rebuilding 1 month after the deadly wildfire devastation
- AP Week in Pictures: North America
- Gen. Mark Milley's security detail and security clearance revoked, Pentagon says
- Apple, drugs, Grindr
- Update your iPhone: Apple just pushed out a significant security update
- India seeking greater voice for developing world at G20, but Ukraine war may overshadow talks
- 'As foretold in the prophecy': Elon Musk and internet react as Tesla stock hits $420 all
- Bruce Springsteen is being treated for peptic ulcer disease. What causes it?
Ranking
- Can Bill Belichick turn North Carolina into a winner? At 72, he's chasing one last high
- From spaceships to ‘Batman’ props, a Hollywood model maker’s creations and collection up for auction
- Lila Moss, Leni Klum and Other Celeb Kids Taking New York Fashion Week by Storm
- California governor signs bill to clear hurdles for student housing at Berkeley’s People’s Park
- Finally, good retirement news! Southwest pilots' plan is a bright spot, experts say
- After body slamming student during arrest, Georgia school police chief placed on leave
- I love saris — but I have never seen saris like these before
- 'New Yorker' culture critic says music and mixtapes helped make sense of himself
Recommendation
Trump issues order to ban transgender troops from serving openly in the military
One Chip Challenge maker Paqui pulls product from store shelves after teen's death in Massachusetts
California governor signs bill to clear hurdles for student housing at Berkeley’s People’s Park
Is it India? Is it Bharat? Speculations abound as government pushes for the country’s Sanskrit name
Pregnant Kylie Kelce Shares Hilarious Question Her Daughter Asked Jason Kelce Amid Rising Fame
Wynn Resorts to settle sexual harassment inaction claim from 9 female salon workers
Amid stall in contract talks with UAW, GM, Stellantis investigated for bad faith by NLRB
Woman charged after abandoning old, visually impaired dog on Arizona roadside